Despite Economy, Undocumented Immigrants Unlikely to Leave U.S.

WASHINGTON (By N.C. Aizenman, Washington Post) January 14, 2009 — Although the economy's nosedive has probably contributed to a substantial drop in the number of undocumented immigrants coming to the United States, those already here will be less motivated to return home, according to a report released today.

Among other reasons, it cited undocumented immigrants' family and job ties to this country, the difficulty they would face trying to reenter once the U.S. economy improves, the comparatively weaker state of their own countries' economies, and the strengthening U.S. dollar.

The study by the nonpartisan, Washington-based Migration Policy Institute also noted an analysis of previous recessions suggests unless the current one is extremely prolonged, the rate of legal immigration to the United States will be largely unaffected.

"The immigration system of the United States makes people wait in line for years to get their visa," said author Demetrios G. Papademetriou. "So by the time it becomes available for a family member or a valued employee people tend to jump at the opportunity. They don't want to return to the back of the line."

The more likely, and worrisome, possible impact of the recession on undocumented immigrants, said Papademetriou, is it will drive them to accept ever-lower wage jobs under ever-worse conditions.

"We have to be careful about what people desperate for a job may do." he said. "This begins to affect the labor standards and wages of not just the immigrants but the people who work with them. This has very important social and economic consequences for the country. . . . If we're not careful we could have situations that are unanticipated and that we haven't seen in this country for a while."

The report synthesized recent statistical analyses and global, historical data to offer a nuanced picture of the potential impact of the current crisis on different categories of migrants.

A growing body of evidence from the both the Census Bureau and independent researchers suggests after a decade of massive growth, the total size of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States abruptly leveled off over the past year to just under 12 million. The only other period during the past decade when the undocumented immigrant population did not rise precipitously was during the 2001 recession, suggesting in both cases the declining economy was an important factor.

Less clear is what portion of the sudden slowdown is due to a drop-off in new undocumented arrivals as opposed to departures, deaths or changes to legal status among those already here. (The Census Bureau does not ask people their immigration status, so researchers must use other methods to estimate the size of the undocumented immigrant population).

An October study by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center estimated the annual number of undocumented immigrants coming to the United States plummeted from about 800,000 per year during the first half of the decade to about 500,000 per year during the second half. Similarly, the Migration Policy Institute study noted a survey by Mexico's official statistics agency found the rate of out-migration from Mexico to the United States each spring has slowed from 14.6 people per 1,000 residents in 2006 to 8.4 per 1,000 residents in 2008. Another study cited in the report found since 2001 the number of undocumented immigrants apprehended along the southern border has risen and fallen in tandem with the employment rate, which measures the demand for labor.

Some analysts have speculated undocumented immigrants might also begin leaving in significant numbers because of the combination of stepped-up enforcement by federal and local authorities and the recession's disproportionate impact on undocumented immigrants, who are more likely to work in the most affected industries. However despite some anecdotal reports, Papademetriou and co-author Aaron Terrazas could find no statistical evidence of a recent increase in the number of immigrants — undocumented or otherwise — returning to Mexico, which sends the largest share of immigrants, or other sending nations since the start of the recession in December 2007.

The report noted that the International Monetary Fund expects economic growth in Mexico to slow from 4.9 percent in 2006 to 1.8 percent in 2009, greatly reducing the incentive of undocumented Mexican immigrants to return. Similarly, the Mexican peso has lost 22 percent of its value against the dollar between Dec. 1, 2007, and Dec. 1, 2008, which has greatly increased the value of the dollars Mexican immigrants in the United States send home, even if they are unable to earn as many of them.