U.S. Population
Projections: 2005-2050
If current trends
continue, the population
of the United States
will rise to 438 million
in 2050, from 296
million in 2005, and 82%
of the increase will be
due to immigrants
arriving from 2005 to
2050 and their U.S.-born
descendants, according
to new projections
developed by the Pew
Research Center.
Of the 117 million
people added to the
population during this
period due to the effect
of new immigration, 67
million will be the
immigrants themselves
and 50 million will be
their U.S.-born children
or grandchildren.
Among the other key
population projections:
Nearly one in five
Americans (19%) will be
an immigrant in 2050,
compared with one in
eight (12%) in 2005. By
2025, the immigrant, or
foreign born, share of
the population will
surpass the peak during
the last great wave of
immigration a century
ago.
The major role of
immigration in national
growth builds on the
pattern of recent
decades, during which
immigrants and their
U.S.-born children and
grandchildren accounted
for most population
increase. Immigration's
importance increased as
the average number of
births to U.S.-born
women dropped sharply
before leveling off.
The Hispanic
population, already the
nation's largest
minority group, will
triple in size and will
account for most of the
nation's population
growth from 2005 through
2050. Hispanics will
make up 29% of the U.S.
population in 2050,
compared with 14% in
2005.
Births in the United
States will play a
growing role in Hispanic
and Asian population
growth; as a result, a
smaller proportion of
both groups will be
foreign-born in 2050
than is the case now.
The non Hispanic white
population will increase
more slowly than other
racial and ethnic
groups; whites in the
United States will
become a minority (47%)
by 2050.
The nation's elderly
population will more
than double in size from
2005 through 2050, as
the baby boom generation
enters the traditional
retirement years. The
number of working age
Americans and children
will grow more slowly
than the elderly
population, and will
shrink as a share of the
total population.
The Pew Center's
projections are based on
detailed assumptions
about births, deaths and
immigration levels ― the
three key components of
population change. All
these assumptions are
built on recent trends.
But it is important to
note that these trends
can change. All
population projections
have inherent
uncertainties,
especially for years
further in the future,
because they can be
affected by changes in
behavior, by new
immigration policies, or
by other events.
Nonetheless, projections
offer a starting point
for understanding and
analyzing the parameters
of future demographic
change.
The Pew Center's report
includes an analysis of
the nation's future
"dependency ratio" ― the
number of children and
elderly compared with
the number of working
age Americans. There
were 59 children and
elderly people per 100
adults of working age in
2005. That will rise to
72 dependents per 100
adults of working age in
2050.
The report also offers
two alternative
population projections,
one based on lower
immigration assumptions
and one based on higher
immigration assumptions.
Hispanics now account for more than half the U.S. population growth this
decade, indicating a powerful new sign of their demographic clout, according
to a Pew Hispanic Center report released Thursday.
The Hispanic population also expanded dramatically in the 1990s, but in
that decade its growth accounted for less than 40 percent of the nation's
total population increase.
Hispanics now represent 50.5 percent of the U.S. population growth since
2000, although they were only 15 percent of the population in 2007.
The Pew report also highlights a significant new driver of the population
increases for the nation's largest minority: Unlike the 1990s when
immigration was the major factor in Hispanic population growth, births in
the U.S. are mostly responsible for the increases this decade.
''The role that Hispanics play, for
Phoenix and the country, is becoming
ever more important," Jon Garrido said.
Jon Garrido said the increases in the
Hispanic population are not primarily related to illegal immigration, or
even legal migration from other countries.
''What's fueling the growth is the natural increase, the U.S.-born
babies, of the previous immigrants who came here five or 10 years ago,"
Jon Garrido said. ''The number of new immigrants who came to
Phoenix has gone
down every year since 2000."
Jon Garrido said some assume the high growth rate locally is due to a very
high fertility rates among Hispanics. He said a bigger factor in Phoenix is
the huge wave of young immigrants from Mexico and Latin America who have
settled here in the 1990s.
''The reason for that natural increase is not because
Hispanics are having
so many babies, it's because so many of the Hispanics in Phoenix are of
child-bearing age," he said.
Jeffery Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, said
Census data shows the Hispanic population has increased 10.2 million, from
35.3 million in 2000 to 45.5 million by July 2007.
A natural demographic increase births minus deaths is responsible for
6 million of the new Hispanic residents this decade. International migration
which among Hispanics has been calculated in the past to be two-thirds
undocumented accounts for 4.2 million of the increase, Passel said.
The Census Bureau's figures do not distinguish whether immigrants are
legal or illegal.
The Pew report documents not only the vigorous growth among Hispanics but
a new and wider dispersal of Hispanics into the West and Northeast, away from
border states where the population has been historically concentrated.
''What's fascinating is we now have rapid Hispanic growth in counties we
didn't think of Hispanics dispersing to" including in Maine, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts, Montana and Oregon, said Richard Fry, senior research
associate at the Pew Center.
''Much of the
Hispanic growth in this decade has taken place in small and
mid-sized cities and in suburbs many of which had relatively few Hispanic
residents until the past decade or two," the Pew report notes.
For example, since 2000, the number of Hispanic residents has grown by
more than 300 percent in Frederick and Culpeper counties in Virginia, and in
Paulding County in Georgia.
While the rate of Hispanic growth may slow as they have fewer children
a common demographic trend for second- and third-generation immigrants it
will continue to outpace the rest of the population, the Pew researchers
said.
''Hispanic populations, first of all, tend to have higher fertility than
the rest of the population," Passel said. ''We project it will decrease, but
still remain higher than the general population."
Hispanics have been a key focal point this election year as the
Democratic and Republican parties try to tap into this growing electorate.
But their long-term impact on national politics is difficult to gauge,
Fry said, noting that Hispanics have historicity voted at lower rates than
other groups.
''It remains to be seen how much import and weight it will have in actual
vote totals," Fry said. ''It depends on a number of factors, such as voter
mobilization. As a share of voter population, Hispanics are becoming more
important. Whether they will realize that potential, we don't know."
Although the American Community
Survey (ACS) produces population,
demographic and housing unit
estimates, it is the Census Bureau's
Population Estimates Program that
produces and disseminates the
official estimates of the population
for the nation, states, counties,
cities and towns and estimates of
housing units for states and
counties.
|
RACE |
|
Total
population |
1,513,777 |
+/-21,479 |
100% |
(X) |
|
One race |
1,489,894 |
+/-20,981 |
100% |
(X) |
|
Two or
more races |
23,883 |
+/-3,445 |
100% |
(X) |
|
|
|
One race |
1,489,894 |
+/-20,981 |
98.4% |
+/-0.2 |
|
White |
1,135,440 |
+/-24,348 |
76.2% |
+/-1.2 |
|
Black or
African American |
80,207 |
+/-7,276 |
5.4% |
+/-0.5 |
|
American
Indian and Alaska Native |
28,631 |
+/-4,335 |
1.9% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Cherokee
tribal grouping |
968 |
+/-850 |
3.4% |
+/-3.1 |
|
Chippewa
tribal grouping |
54 |
+/-92 |
0.2% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Navajo
tribal grouping |
13,069 |
+/-3,373 |
45.6% |
+/-9.9 |
|
Sioux
tribal grouping |
337 |
+/-404 |
1.2% |
+/-1.4 |
|
Asian |
40,217 |
+/-4,147 |
2.7% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Asian
Indian |
11,371 |
+/-3,111 |
28.3% |
+/-6.8 |
|
Chinese |
5,185 |
+/-1,661 |
12.9% |
+/-3.6 |
|
Filipino |
7,595 |
+/-2,325 |
18.9% |
+/-5.4 |
|
Japanese |
1,686 |
+/-451 |
4.2% |
+/-1.2 |
|
Korean |
3,470 |
+/-1,234 |
8.6% |
+/-3.2 |
|
Vietnamese |
5,577 |
+/-2,323 |
13.9% |
+/-5.8 |
|
Other
Asian |
5,333 |
+/-2,393 |
13.3% |
+/-5.7 |
|
Native
Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander |
2,041 |
+/-907 |
0.1% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Native
Hawaiian |
N |
N |
N |
N |
|
Guamanian
or Chamorro |
N |
N |
N |
N |
|
Samoan |
N |
N |
N |
N |
|
Other
Pacific Islander |
N |
N |
N |
N |
|
Some
other race |
203,358 |
+/-14,443 |
13.6% |
+/-1.0 |
|
Two or
more races |
23,883 |
+/-3,445 |
1.6% |
+/-0.2 |
|
White and
Black or African
American |
3,396 |
+/-1,210 |
14.2% |
+/-4.8 |
|
White and
American Indian and
Alaska Native |
2,437 |
+/-821 |
10.2% |
+/-3.4 |
|
White and
Asian |
3,050 |
+/-1,116 |
12.8% |
+/-4.4 |
|
Black or
African American and
American Indian and
Alaska Native |
764 |
+/-525 |
3.2% |
+/-2.1 |
|
|
|
Race
alone or in combination
with one or more other
races |
|
Total
population |
1,513,777 |
+/-21,479 |
100% |
(X) |
|
White |
1,155,249 |
+/-24,911 |
76.3% |
+/-1.2 |
|
Black or
African American |
87,245 |
+/-7,148 |
5.8% |
+/-0.5 |
|
American
Indian and Alaska Native |
34,077 |
+/-4,418 |
2.3% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Asian |
45,674 |
+/-4,389 |
3.0% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Native
Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander |
4,139 |
+/-1,693 |
0.3% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Some
other race |
213,713 |
+/-14,789 |
14.1% |
+/-1.0 |
|
|
|
HISPANIC
OR Hispanic AND RACE |
|
Total
population |
1,513,777 |
+/-21,479 |
100% |
(X) |
|
Hispanic
or Hispanic (of any
race) |
646,670 |
+/-16,060 |
42.7% |
+/-0.8 |
|
Mexican |
585,509 |
+/-16,862 |
38.7% |
+/-0.9 |
|
Puerto
Rican |
6,887 |
+/-1,988 |
0.5% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Cuban |
3,341 |
+/-2,452 |
0.2% |
+/-0.2 |
|
Other
Hispanic or Hispanic |
50,933 |
+/-6,728 |
3.4% |
+/-0.4 |
|
Not
Hispanic or Hispanic |
867,107 |
+/-16,907 |
57.3% |
+/-0.8 |
|
White
alone |
708,720 |
+/-15,277 |
46.8% |
+/-0.9 |
|
Black or
African American alone |
77,333 |
+/-7,169 |
5.1% |
+/-0.5 |
|
American
Indian and Alaska Native
alone |
25,548 |
+/-3,973 |
1.7% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Asian
alone |
39,174 |
+/-4,014 |
2.6% |
+/-0.3 |
|
Native
Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander alone |
1,625 |
+/-774 |
0.1% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Some
other race alone |
2,797 |
+/-1,297 |
0.2% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Two or
more races |
11,910 |
+/-2,454 |
0.8% |
+/-0.2 |
|
Two races
including Some other
race |
755 |
+/-524 |
0.0% |
+/-0.1 |
|
Two races
excluding Some other
race, and Three or more
races |
11,155 |
+/-2,424 |
0.7% |
+/-0.2 |
