The Blue Storm is coming in 2010

Hispanics will Turn Arizona Blue in 2010

PHOENIX (Jack Dunning, Examiner) July 6, 2009  —  President Barack Obama may have lost to John McCain by a 10.5 percent margin in Maricopa County, but all the indications are Arizona and the Phoenix area are coming out of their conservative shell and feeling more comfortable with a touch of liberalism in their politics.

Obama, of course, won the national vote handily by 52.87 percent to McCain’s 45.60 percent popular vote. Arizona just hasn’t fully caught up yet with the nationwide trend toward a more moderate approach to governing.

A demographic breakthrough for Democrats means the same for liberals and moderates, as well as Independent voters which have become a force in Arizona.

Currently there are 880,128 Independent and unaffiliated voters in Arizona, a 6.8 percent gain from last November to total 28.4 percent of the state’s electorate. Although more moderate in their leanings, enough Arizona Independents must still be hung up on McCain for him to win the state.

The Brookings Institute published a paper after the 2008 Presidential general election shows the switch from 2004 where it is now most prominent in the surrounding states of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. In 2004, Kerry apparently lost the Democrats’ grip on the exploding Hispanic vote, whereas Mr. Obama won it by a margin of 36 points, 67 percent to McCain’s 31 percent nationally.

In Arizona, Obama took the Hispanic vote by 56 percent to McCain’s 41 percent, the same as Kerry in 2004. The President also carried the white 18 to 29 age group nationally by 10 points, but that was the only age group among whites he carried. In another long term trend that continues to beef up the Democrats, white college graduates came out solidly for the Democrats. And yet a third inclination toward moderate liberalism is the trend appears to be anchored in the nation’s metro areas where the new population pockets are.

On the other side of the aisle, a Gannett News writer says the Republicans had better hope the current demographic trends are not their destiny. If they are, and Republicans continues their death wish campaign — as an example, labeling blowhard Rush Limbaugh as their “unofficial leader” — there is a definite threat to the future of the party. This could result in a re-thinking of the political landscape of Arizona and the Phoenix area, happening on both the congressional and state levels.

Here’s how: Since the 2000 census, the non-Hispanic white population of Phoenix has dropped below 50 percent with Hispanics now accounting for 49 percent of Phoenix residents and growing by 2% per year. With immigration still a heated issue, organizers of Hispanic groups are sure to pull out all the stops when it comes to registering their constituents and their obvious emphasis will be toward the Democratic Party and Independents. The youth vote, already in Barack Obama’s corner is likely to continue its liberal journey left to Democrats and Independents.

And it’s the “I” word the Republicans have to be concerned with. Arizona Hispanics will continue to support the Democrats as long as the immigration issue is still undecided, but particularly if President Obama is able to pass a fair law. Over 44 percent of Phoenix’s population is age 18 to 44, and based on earlier figures, at least 28 percent of those registered to vote already lean Independent. Depending on the success of the Obama administration in the next few months, this group could lean more heavily toward a liberal philosophy.

It will be interesting to follow Arizona and Phoenix elections in the next couple of years to see how Arizona and the Phoenix area change from red to blue.